The Federal Reserve is likely to downsize its rate cuts to 25 basis points at both the November and December policy meetings, according to Aichi Amemiya at Nomura Securities International.

Why it matters: For now it looks likely that the U.S. economy could avoid a recession as inflation plunges and the labor market remains healthy. Powell signaled that lower rates could help guarantee a so-called "soft landing," but cautioned that some risks remain.

GDI is an alternate measure of economic growth, similar to gross domestic product, but with income rather than output as the yardstick. A gap between the two led Fed officials to worry that output might be weaker than thought, but the two converged when the estimate of GDI was increased.